AllStreet Capital · Housing & SFR
Midwest SFR Supply & Absorption
Where new rental supply is landing — and why the Midwest stays tight while the Sunbelt digests a build-to-rent wave
Snapshot as of June 30, 2026 · sources: RealPage, Yardi Matrix, John Burns, NAA, Redfin, Columbus REALTORS®, U.S. Census · ask to refresh and this view updates
Build-to-rent supply is rolling over: national units under construction are down ~50% from the 2024 peak, and ~61% of what's left sits in the South. The Midwest — Columbus in particular — receives almost none of that new supply, yet has the demand engine: jobs, in-migration, and affordability. Supply-starved + demand-rich = durable occupancy and pricing power for a disciplined fix-to-rent operator.
National build-to-rent construction pipeline · the supply wave is receding (RealPage / NAA)
2024 peak · ~122,000 units under construction · 100%
Q1'26 · ~62,000 under construction
~50% lower than the peak — starts pulled back sharply as capital repriced
South holds ~61% of the pipeline
Phoenix alone ≈ 12% (~7,300 units) · the Midwest is a rounding error by comparison
Completions rolling over
Deliveries peaked ~12,300 units in Q2'25 and are now declining — the lagged tail of the boom
Peak pipeline
Current under construction
Sunbelt concentration
Deliveries
Where the supply isn't going matters as much as where it is. New BTR product floods a handful of Sunbelt metros; Midwest rental demand is met mostly by existing and renovated stock — exactly the segment AllStreet operates in.
Columbus rental fundamentals (MMG / Yardi / market data)
95%+Occupancy, well-managed
<5%Vacancy (2026E)
~4%Rent growth 2026E
National SFR rent growth (Jan'26, YoY)+2.6%
Columbus rent growth vs nationalOutperforming +
Tenant retentionAbove average
Midwest leads U.S. SFR rent growth · YoY, Jan 2026 (John Burns)
The strongest SFR rent growth in the country is clustered in the Midwest — low new supply meets steady, non-speculative demand.
The Columbus demand engine · why absorption stays strong
Median home price (Jan'26)~$319,900 +6.7% YoY
Price vs U.S. median~33% below
Metro population>2.2M
Share of Ohio's 2025 population growth53%
Projected jobs added by 2030102,000+
MSA job growth rate (highest in Ohio)9.4%
Intel + Amazon expansions10,000+ jobs
Intel New Albany permanent roles~3,000
Affordability keeps the rent-vs-own math favorable for renters; high-income tech in-migration (Intel, Amazon) adds a demand layer on the northeast side. Population capture far above the city's 19% share of Ohio signals sustained household formation.
Read-through for fix-to-rent underwriting
- Supply risk is low where we operate. The BTR wave bypasses the Midwest — little new competing product to pressure rents.
- Absorption is met by renovated stock. Our lane (acquire → renovate → rent) is the marginal supply in these markets.
- Pricing power is real but disciplined. ~4% growth is demand-driven, not speculative — underwrite to it, don't stretch.
- Basis matters more than momentum. Buy right against a ~$320K median; affordability is the moat.
What we're watching
- Sunbelt oversupply spilling into national rent prints — a headline risk that doesn't reflect Midwest reality.
- Columbus permit/starts data — any pickup in local new-build rental supply.
- Intel construction timeline slippage and its effect on the demand ramp.
- Rate path (see companion note) feeding home affordability and rent-vs-own.
The dials that decide the thesis
~50%
BTR pipeline off 2024 peak
61%
of BTR supply in the South
~4%
Columbus rent growth 2026E
A falling national pipeline + Sunbelt concentration + sub-5% Midwest vacancy = a supply/demand imbalance that favors the operator. A surge in local Midwest starts, or a stall in the Columbus job engine, would be the signals to revisit.
