Research that moves before the market does.

National asking rents have fallen 35 straight months to $1,692 (−1.5% YoY) — yet Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Chicago print positive growth while the Sun Belt gives back 4–8% a year. Rent is now a local permitting story, and the best-vs-worst metro spread is nearly 11 points.

Owning the median home now runs $920/month — about 55% — above renting, and the income needed to buy has jumped past $120K vs $66K in 2020. With hike odds back on the table for the July FOMC, renter households just hit a record 46.1 million.

Congress passed a 350-home cap on institutional single-family buyers by veto-proof margins — and large-investor purchases have already fallen ~60%, from ~250 to ~100 homes a day. Who wins the redrawn acquisition lane.

Only ~30% of announced AI data-center capacity is actually under construction, and 50–60% comes online on schedule. The binding constraint is power, not compute — the real-world governor on the memory-pricing thesis.

Build-to-rent supply is down ~50% from its 2024 peak and 61% Sunbelt-concentrated — while Columbus stays supply-starved and demand-rich. Why absorption and rent growth favor a disciplined fix-to-rent operator.

The Fed has held four straight meetings and the curve implies only modest cuts — while SFR cap rates reset ~194bps higher to 7.3%, restoring thin positive leverage over ~6.5% financing. Why entry basis is the edge.